The political turmoil in Thailand shows no sign of abating. On 26 February 2010, the Supreme Court’s Criminal Division for Holders of Political Positions is scheduled to deliver its verdict on whether to seize the frozen assets worth some 76 billion baht (US$ 2.2 billion) of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his family. Some political analysts predict that his fortune would be confiscated as the court appears to have been pressured to do so by Thaksin’s rivals, especially those in the current Abhisit Vejjajiva government.
The verdict will surely further polarise Thailand’s politics. Throughout the past few years, the Thais have witnessed the emergence of “the state within a state” within some elements in state institutions, such as factions in the army or the police, have refused to respond to the civilian leadership of the incumbent regime. Instead, they have chosen to work with the opposition, namely the Puea Thai Party and the Thaksin-backed “red-shirts” of the National United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD), and in some cases even supported street protests, sometimes violent, to weaken the government.
Since the New Year however, Thailand has appeared to have entered into another phase of even more troublesome politics. There is some evidence to suggest that there has been an attempt by the red-shirts to create “an army within an army”, reaffirming the fragmentation of the Thai military. Such polarisation within the military could be catastrophic for Thai politics. Already, rumours of an imminent coup are making their rounds.
The phenomenon of an army within the army has worried anti-Thaksin Bangkok elites. General Panlop Pinmanee, former deputy director of the Internal Security Operations Command (ISOC) and a member of the opposition Puea Thai Party, recently stated that he wished to transform the red-shirted movement into a “people’s army”, with former prime minister and Thaksin ally General Chavalit Yongchaiyudh as the supreme commander. Panlop initially claimed that Chavalit agreed with his proposal and that millions of Thais would join the people’s army simply because they were tired of the political situation and wanted to defend democracy against any possible military takeover.
On 3 February 2010, Panlop travelled to Dubai to meet with Thaksin. Upon his return to Bangkok, he told the Thai media that Thaksin instructed him to set up a people’s army to battle against the Democrat-led government. But Thaksin has failed to explain in greater detail about the kind of people’s army he has in mind. Since then, Chavalit has turned down the offer stressing that he had no intention of dividing the army.
Immediately, core leaders of the UDD rebuffed Panlop’s idea. A UDD leader, Nattawut Saikua, said that he knew nothing about the people’s army Panlop referred to, and that the UDD was opposed to violence and would continue with its peaceful protests. Meanwhile, another UDD leader, Jatuporn Promphan, reiterated, “The plan to set up the people’s army to achieve a true democracy was not a resolution of the UDD.”
While the suggestion of a people’s army was rejected, another similar plan has emerged. On 5 February 2010, Major General Khattiya Sawasdipol, widely known under the nick-name Seh Daeng, unveiled his plan to launch “UDD troops” to guard the red-shirted demonstrators. Khattiya said that about 200 former military rangers from Nakhon Ratchasima and other northeastern provinces had volunteered to protect the UDD demonstrations. “Usually our unit holds no weapons. But if the state clamps down on us, we have to defend ourselves and our red-shirted brothers and we may need to resort to weapons,” said Khattiya.
Khattiya claimed to have recruited about 5,000 people to join the UDD protection force and planned to absorb more by setting up an application desk near the Puea Thai Party headquarters. The main objective of the UDD troops, according to Khattiya, is to fight against injustice in Thai society. In response, the Democrat government has argued that the establishment of the UDD unit as envisaged by Khattiya would violate the law.
Khattiya is a controversial figure both in the military, and now in the Thai political domain. He was accused of being behind the grenade attack on the office of Army Chief Anupong Paochinda on 14 January 2010. When the police raided his house, they found a large number of weapons, suggesting that could have been the mastermind behind the attack.
The ideas of Panlop and Khattiya might well be just a fantasy, but they illustrate that the military is no longer a unified force designed to support the regime of the day. Panlop is been a senior member of the army. He was the man who ordered the military to attack Krue Se mosque in 2004 which killed all the Muslim insurgents who took refuge in this centuries-old holy place. The loyalty of Panlop and Khattiya to Thaksin is seen as an embarrassing slap in the face of the Thai army which overthrew Thaksin in a coup in 2006. Most importantly, the military has long aligned itself with the palace and the Bangkok elite. Thus, the polarisation of the military will only aggravate the call for a shift of the status quo in Thai politics.
The plan for the people’s army and the UDD troops could have been set to scare the Abhisit government to the point that it would scurry to hold peace talks with deposed premier Thaksin ahead of the verdict on the seizure of his assets. However, threatening the use of force against the government, as seen in the Pattaya and Bangkok incidents in April last year where the red-shirted protesters adopted violent means to accomplish their goal, could get out of control.
An armed struggle is the last thing Thailand needs right now.